India's fiscal deficit is projected to reach 4.5 per cent of GDP for the current fiscal year, exceeding the budgeted target, as the government's policy responses to the West Asia conflict are expected to strain public finances, according to research firm BMI.
The forthcoming Budget could think of maintaining public capital expenditure at 3 per cent so that domestic resources are available for private investments, points out N R Bhanumurthy.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that preventing second-round effects of supply shocks, where inflation expectations rise due to prolonged disruptions, is the primary role of monetary policy. He also defended the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions, asserting it did not commit to an 'indefensible peg'.
Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh Insights from behavioural economics suggest that an ambitious nudge can be effective if three conditions are met, points out Ram Singh, director, Delhi School of Economics.
Ashok Lahiri, a distinguished economist with experience in government, the private sector, and electoral politics, has been appointed as the new Vice-Chairman of NITI Aayog, tasked with strengthening India's reform trajectory and policy-making.
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has proposed a 20-point policy agenda to the finance ministry, including a conflict-linked emergency credit line guarantee scheme and tax rationalisation on energy inputs, to support MSMEs, exporters, and energy-intensive industries affected by the ongoing West Asia war.
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd anticipates annual revenue of approximately Rs 2,000 crore from its new bio-plastic plant in Uttar Pradesh, scheduled for commissioning in the December quarter. The company is investing over Rs 3,000 crore in the Poly Lactic Acid (PLA) plant with a capacity of 80,000 tonnes per annum.
The United Nations has revised downward India's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 6.4 per cent from an earlier 6.6 per cent, attributing the change to global uncertainties and economic shocks stemming from the ongoing West Asia crisis.
Following through announcements with enforcement of measures is key, as a run through recent Indian economic history shows, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have been fiscally stressed for a considerable period of time, and there are no easy ways to mobilise revenues to meet the cost of the promised freebies, particularly in the prevailing difficult economic scenario, points out M Govinda Rao.
India Ratings and Research predicts the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the repo rate at 5.25 per cent throughout FY27, despite potential inflationary pressures from higher fuel prices, with inflation expected to remain within the central bank's tolerance band.
Japanese automaker Honda plans to introduce over 10 new models, including electric vehicles and compact SUVs, in India by 2030, identifying India as one of its three key markets for future growth.
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath announced that the state has secured investment proposals worth approximately Rs 50 trillion over the past nine years, attributing this economic revival to the enforcement of the rule of law and strategic policy changes. He affirmed UP's trajectory towards becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2029-30.
External Affiars and Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Monday said the government cannot indulge in 'reckless borrowing' and did not have Parliamentary mandate to tweak taxes.
India's toll collection growth is projected to moderate to 5-7 per cent year-on-year in FY27, a 150-200 basis points reduction, primarily due to the economic impact of the West Asia conflict and a slowdown in commercial traffic, according to Crisil Ratings.
India's primary deficit (Centre and states) for FY21 is assumed to be 6.8 per cent of GDP, according to the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament on Friday. It said the Covid-19 pandemic has created a significant negative shock to demand. Active fiscal policy -- one that recognises that fiscal multipliers are disproportionately higher during economic crises than during economic booms -- can ensure that the full benefit of seminal economic reforms is reaped by limiting potential damage to productive capacity.
India's foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are projected to surpass $90 billion in 2025-26 (FY26), driven by robust policy reforms, free trade agreements, and strong economic growth, according to DPIIT Secretary Amardeep Singh Bhatia.
A prolonged supply shock can transmit to lower incomes, and dampen confidence and sentiment, warns Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head-research and outreach, ICRA.
'If the war continue for a longer period of time, it is just a matter of time before the government will pass on some of the price increases.'
Benchmark lending rates unchanged with repo rate at 5.25%
Following the swearing-in of C Joseph Vijay as Tamil Nadu's chief minister, the new cabinet has pledged a 'white paper' audit of all state departments and a 'zero-interference' policy in administration, signalling a significant shift in governance.
'...the enormous responsibility and faith the youth has put on his shoulders, that he is going to solve their problems.'
'Even last year, when India bought gold, the physical quantity was much less than the previous years.'
Indian carmakers experienced a robust start to the new fiscal year, with an estimated 4.5 lakh passenger vehicles sold in April, marking a 27 per cent increase year-on-year, attributed to factors like GST 2.0, repo rate cuts, and income tax benefits.
India's retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased to 3.48 per cent in April, up from 3.40 per cent in March, primarily due to a surge in prices of gold and silver jewellery, as well as certain kitchen staples like tomatoes and cauliflower.
Opposition MPs in the Rajya Sabha criticised the Modi government's economic policies, citing the LPG crisis, lack of energy security, and concerns over the Economic Stabilisation Fund.
The gems and jewellery industry anticipates challenging times following the government's decision to increase gold import duty to 15 per cent, a move that exporters warn could fuel the grey market and heighten smuggling risks.
India possesses two months of fuel stockpiles and faces no supply concerns despite global energy disruptions, according to Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. However, state-run fuel retailers are incurring losses of up to Rs 1 lakh crore in a single quarter due to elevated crude prices and unchanged retail fuel prices, raising questions about the sustainability of these losses.
Global brokerage Bernstein has issued a cautionary note, stating that India risks 'under-delivering on its potential' unless it addresses key policy bottlenecks and structural risks, including employment challenges from AI, limited manufacturing gains, and rising welfare spending.
'In all these years of rupee depreciation, of rising oil prices, of inflation caused by import dependence, not one leader had the courage to look the people in the eye and say: Please do this for your country.'
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has urged the Indian government to gradually restore the Rs 10-per-litre cut in special additional excise duty on petrol and diesel over six to nine months. This move aims to relieve pressure on government finances as crude oil prices stabilise, without significantly impacting consumer sentiment.
The World Bank has affirmed India's strong position to withstand the current global energy shock, citing high foreign exchange reserves, fiscal space, and low inflation as key buffers supporting continued growth despite international headwinds.
The demand got a further clout after the economic growth in 2011-12 recorded the nine-year low growth of 6.5 per cent.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has opted to keep its key interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, anticipating a global economic recovery following a ceasefire in the US/Israel-Iran conflict, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations.
S Mahendra Dev, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, expressed confidence that the rupee would stabilise around the 92-93 level against the US dollar, despite geopolitical tensions, and that foreign investment flows would return.
'Vijay entered politics at a much better age compared to Rajnikanth and Kamal Haasan. His fans are young and he has at least 2-3 decades ahead of him.'
A foreign brokerage warns that sustained crude oil prices above USD 100 per barrel could push India's inflation above the RBI's tolerance level, potentially triggering interest rate hikes.
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